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    Gavyn Davies

    Macro-economics Commentator

    Gavyn Davies is chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and co-founder of Active Partners and Anthos Capital. He was the head of the global economics department at Goldman Sachs from 1987-2001 and chairman of the BBC from 2001-2004. He has also served as an economic policy adviser in No 10 Downing Street, and an external adviser to the British Treasury. He is a visiting fellow at Balliol College, Oxford.

    From time-to-time Gavyn Davies, or investment management businesses he is associated with, may have beneficial interests in investments that are impacted by the macroeconomic or other indicators described herein.

    Readers are urged to seek professional advice before making any investments.

    @gavyndavies  on Twitter (link opens in a new browser window)

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    • Sunday, 10 January, 2021
      Cryptocurrencies
      Bitcoin has ambitions for gold’s role

      After years of hostility to cryptocurrencies, central banks will permit them a limited role

    • Sunday, 27 December, 2020
      Global Economy
      The response to secular stagnation will drive the markets post-Covid

      Much depends on how much Joe Biden boosts the fiscal stimulus as US president

    • Sunday, 13 December, 2020
      Global Economy
      As Covid optimism grows, investors seek to hedge against inflation risk

      The global reflation trade means a change of strategy on portfolio protection

    • Monday, 30 November, 2020
      Coronavirus economic impact
      The risks of the global Covid debt bridge

      Markets seem unconcerned that the pandemic has left borrowing at all-time highs

    • Sunday, 15 November, 2020
      Coronavirus
      Democracies that failed the Covid test will struggle on climate change

      Efforts to address both issues are hampered by externalities and behavioural biases

    • Sunday, 1 November, 2020
      Coronavirus economic impact
      The future of fiscal policy without traditional constraints

      Covid response has shown inflation and interest rates no longer dictate limits on debt

    • Sunday, 18 October, 2020
      Japanese economy
      Japan’s Suga inherits an economy stabilised by Abenomics

      The country is no longer such an obvious outlier among its peers

    • Sunday, 4 October, 2020
      Global Economy
      Global goods sector drives economic recovery

      Markets are reflecting sectoral shifts in the world economy as services lag behind manufacturing

    • Sunday, 20 September, 2020
      Global Economy
      Expect long-term economic scarring from Covid-19

      Forecasts for GDP growth look optimistic, but the risks of permanent losses are worrying

    • Sunday, 13 September, 2020
      Bank of England
      The Bank of England’s message on monetary financing needs clarity

      The central bank’s gilt purchases have been justified but could pose long-term risks for financial stability

    • Sunday, 6 September, 2020
      US inflation
      The Fed risks higher inflation to boost jobs

      The US central bank’s new monetary framework takes policy back to the 1960s 

    • Sunday, 2 August, 2020
      Global economic recovery
      The anatomy of a very brief bear market

      Dramatic changes in the equity risk premium may have caused US stock market volatility

    • Sunday, 19 July, 2020
      Coronavirus economic impact
      US Covid-19 surge could trigger a double-dip recession

      Markets are ignoring the possibility that severe lockdowns may be needed in many states

    • Sunday, 12 July, 2020
      Global Economy
      Central banks expand their role to address the crisis

      Far from being impotent, they have again been crucial actors in the pandemic

    • Sunday, 5 July, 2020
      US employment
      Big data suggests a difficult recovery in US jobs market

      Private sources paint a detailed and worrying picture of the labour market after the Covid-19 shock

    • Sunday, 28 June, 2020
      Global Economy
      The safe-asset shortage after Covid-19

      Demand has outstripped supply since 2009 but the latest crisis may help to redress the balance

    • Sunday, 21 June, 2020
      Global Economy
      Will public debt be a problem when the Covid-19 crisis is over?

      There is unanimity about macroeconomic policy for now, but not about exit strategy

    • Sunday, 7 June, 2020
      Global Economy
      Managing Covid debt mountains is a key task for the next decade

      Treasury bond issuance and central bank QE must work in tandem for economic recovery

    • Sunday, 31 May, 2020
      Global Economy
      The effects of Covid-19 could deepen secular stagnation

      Monetary policy as we know it has become redundant. Central banks’ golden era is probably over

    • Saturday, 23 May, 2020
      Global Economy
      Penny-pinching consumers could spell trouble for recovery

      US savings rates are pushing towards record highs

    • Sunday, 17 May, 2020
      Global Economy
      Why the US jobless surge is worse than in Europe

      America’s emergency aid supports those made unemployed instead of preventing lay-offs

    • Sunday, 3 May, 2020
      Global Economy
      After lockdowns, economic sunlight or a long hard slog?

      Equities imply that economic activity will swiftly return to previous peaks 

    • Tuesday, 28 April, 2020
      News in-depthFT Alphaville
      Inflation figures are about to get fuzzier

      Official data will show prices falling drastically but might not be a fair reflection of what’s really going on.

    • Sunday, 26 April, 2020
      Global Economy
      The deflation threat from the virus will be long lasting

      Supply lockdowns could cause bigger declines in global demand, with falling prices 

    • Sunday, 19 April, 2020
      Global Economy
      The SDR is an idea whose time has come

      An issue of new special drawing rights would help the world economy, if done correctly

    Previous page You are on page 1 Next page

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